Early Oscar Thoughts

I noted in the post below that there were few surprises in today's Oscar nominations, though LC NY Bureau Chief Doug cited Christopher Nolan's snub in the Best Director category for Inception.  It's rare that a Best Picture nominee wins without at least a Best Director nomination if not a win.  Yes, it happened with Driving Miss Daisy, but probably won't this year.  That means the real contenders for Best Picture are Black Swan, The Fighter, The King's Speech, The Social Network, and True Grit.  I believe it's between The King's Speech and The Social Network with Social Network more likely.  There's a bit of a backlash against Social Network by those who claim it's pure fiction so it doesn't have a lock.  This category could be interesting.  

Jarvier Bardim was an unexpected nominee for Best Actor, but I don't believe he'll win.  He does bring some much-needed diversity to the acting field, though.  Colin Firth should win.  If he falters, it's opens the field considerably.  James Franco is probably his toughest competition.

As much as I would love to see Annette Benning win her long-overdue Oscar as this year's Best Actress, I believe Natalie Portman's strong performance will pull her through.  I don't believe any of the other ladies have a real chance.  

I suppose we'll hear Christian Bale's name called for Best Supporting Actor and he'll bound up on stage with the happy/shaggy/nutty persona he's adopted for this year's awards season.  I suppose happy nutty Bale beats dour asshole Bale, but I find him annoying.  Mark Ruffalo is my personal favorite, but I think Bale has close to a lock. 

Melissa Leo seems comfortably ahead in the Supporting Actress race, and it's nice to see an actress of a certain age achieve stardom.  The fact that she and Amy Adams are both from the same film could work against her and perhaps throw it to Helena Bonham Carter for a lovely, subtle performance, but I doubt it. 

     

David Fincher is probably the lead contender for Best Director for The Social Network.  Best Picture and Best Director so often go together, so look for Tom Hopper of The King's Speech as his greatest competition. 

I realize that these thoughts are not exactly brilliant or ground-breaking, but it feels like the mystery and surprise have been leached out of the Oscars in recent years.  After a round of awards shows, the likely winners are obvious.  I'm always hopeful for a surprise, maybe a Ruffalo win for Supporting Actor, or Jacki Weaver for Supporting Actress.  Can you imagine if Michelle Williams' name was called for Best Actress or Toy Story 3 for Best Picture?  Jaws would drop to the floor.  Oh well, at least we have Helena Bonham Carter's outfit to look forward to.