Conway - Paul Race Dead Heat

In the Kentucky Senate race, Rand Paul has been enjoyng a significant lead over Democrat and state Attorney General Jack Conway.  That appears to be changing fast.  In the just-released Courier Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll, Paul leads Conway 49 to 47%, which is within the margin of error. The previous poll, released the first week of September, gave Paul a lead of 55 to 40%.  The results indicate that Conway has moved well ahead among women while Paul still leads among men. 

Is Tea Party strength weakening?  Perhaps November won't be the Republican blow-out the press has been endlessly predicting?  This is just one poll, but it's interesting.       

Quote of the Day

"They filmed a building in the poorer section of New York with some broken windows and they said, `Oh, this is how the poor in America lives, but it backfired on them because the Soviet citizens looked at that video closely and they saw flickering color television sets in all those windows." 

--Rand Paul, GOP nominee for the Senate from Kentucky, arguing that we shouldn't be such crybabies about poverty because 40 or 50 years ago people in New York tenements had color TV and people in the Soviet Union had to watch black and white.  Or something.

Rachel Maddow Eviscerates Rand Paul

Newly minted Republican nominee for Senate from Kentucky Rand Paul went on Rachel Maddow's show last night and she brought up his lack of support for the Civil Rights Act.  Watch:

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Does he truly not see a distinction between turning away a customer because he's armed and turning away a customer because of the color of his skin?  Does he not understand that a business (like a bar) might have legitimate reasons for turning away a patron with a gun but never have a legitimate reason for turning away a person due to race?  Does he not think legislatures and courts can see that distinction?  In addition to dead eyes and an almost total lack of charisma, I don't think Rand Paul is very smart. 

He may not be smart, but he is scared.  He issued a statement clarification today in which he stated that he does not support repeal of the Civil Rights Act.  Read it here and smell the fear. Just a few hours later, a spokesman for the Paul campaign issued this statement:

 "Civil Rights legislation that has been affirmed by our courts gives the Federal government the right to ensure that private businesses don't discriminate based on race. Dr. Paul supports those powers."


This, of course, contradicts his statements on Maddow's show last night.  Paul's most passionate supporters love his commitment to unpopular beliefs.  One interview and he does an about-face. 

There is a reason why the GOP establishment did not support Paul's campaign.  They want someone who will win the general election without a truckload of controversy.  This is just the beginning of the Rand Paul crazy.  There is much more the Democrats can roll out, starting with his opposition to the Americans With Disabilities Act.  Picture a commercial with a sweet old lady, staggering across a huge parking lot with her walker because there are no handicap parking spaces.  Then imagine a precious little girl in a wheelchair, unable to go to school because she can't get on the bus.

Good Night for Dems

Last night's election day results were solid for Democrats, despite the incessant media drum-beating that this fall will be a Democratic rout.  In Pennslyvania, Joe Sestak beat six-term Senator Arlen Spector for the Democratic nomination.  The media's conventional wisdom is that this represents a voter revolt against Washington insiders.  Maybe, but Sestak is a sitting Congressman and hardly an outsider.  Plus, Arlen painted himself into a corner by switching parties because he was going to loose the GOP primary, not out of personal convictions.  Sestak could truthfully run as the real Democrat.  It didn't help when Arlen attacked Sestak's military record.  As a retired Naval Admiral, his military credentials are strong.  It made Arlen look petty and desperate. 

In the Pennsylvania race to fill the late Jack Murtha's unexpired term,  Democrat Mark Critz defeated Republican Tim Burns by 8 points.  PA-12 is a Republican district that went for John McCain in 2008 by a wide margin.  The GOP was counting on this seat to get them closer to capturing the House.  Obama is very unpopular there and the GOP didn't even get close to a victory. 

In Kentucky, Rand Paul won the GOP nomination for the Senate over establishment candidate Trey Grayson.  The press has been obsessed with Dr. Paul and has completely ignored the Democratic race in which Jack Conway defeated Daniel Mongiardo.  What was interesting about this race, and almost completely ignored by the Tea Party obsessed media, was Democratic voter turnout in Kentucky.  It was heavier than Republican turn out and that's a fairly good predictor of general election results.  Rand Paul may be the media darling of the moment, but he is not going to have an easy race in the general election. 

The conventional wisdom that Democrats are demoralized and may stay home in November is looking increasingly untrue.